Maggie says:
It's been a busy time. I feel like I've been over-stimulated by current events almost daily for months now. It's been a barrage of breaking news, updated poll numbers, deciding games, debates, and constant analysis in the worlds of politics and sports. Not that I'm complaining... it's great to have more and bigger things to follow rather than less and smaller things. It's been so long coming it suddenly seems abrupt that these twists and turns in the world of news will be said and done in just a week's time. There will be a different kind of news then - not this breathless anticipation toward a deciding moment in history (like, I hope, a Kerry win on Nov2 or the Red Sox winning the World Series). Some thoughts on the week to come:
- Polls are overrated. They just are. First, these over-hyped new national numbers coming out each day don’t mean anything given the Electoral College. So rather than freaking out by a national poll showing Bush up by 3%, go to the state polls instead, which will decide the outcome of this thing. As of today, Kerry is ahead in every single tossup state except Nevada. Given my prediction of awhile back that whoever takes two out of three in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio will win it all, I’m feeling pretty great that Kerry is currently winning all three. Also, there are two major problems with these polls: first, they’re not capturing the primarily young block of voters who only have a cell phone rather than a land line (who I imagine would more likely be Kerry voters than Bush voters) and they’re not accounting for the huge number of newly registered voters (which again, are much more likely to be in Kerry’s corner). I think it's fair to say that most polls are favoring Bush by 1-2% more than they should, given these factors. But voter turnout is going to be the real wildcard here, and I think it’ll go in our favor.
- This is the year. Since 1918, Sox fans have been saying that “there’s always next year.” Well, we’re not going to have to say that this time around. The level of confidence the players have on the field is unparalleled. I mean, coming from 0-3 behind the Yankees to win the ALCS and now they’re 3-0 against St. Louis in the World Series? Sure, the Cardinals could come from behind just like we did. But I don’t see it happening. I don’t think anyone does. This is the year. And Boston deserves it.
- Unification and Paseo: No Means No! For the second year in a row, local voters are faced with two very important votes on this year’s ballot – whether to unify the city and county governments and whether to put a road through the Petroglyph National Monument (both of which were turned down last year). Defeating both these measures is crucial to maintaining the sense of place and cultural importance that is so strong and unique here in the Albuquerque area. There are mountains of things to say on both of these issues, but if anyone was lucky enough to attend Teresa Córdova’s presentation against unification Monday night (sponsored in part by your favorite M trio), you got a sense of the passion that goes into these fights. I’ll be thinking of Marjorie and Mikaela this weekend as they help out with the last-minute push to publicize why unification would be devastating to Bernalillo County’s rural communities.
Good luck to everyone in the final week of campaigning and obsessive poll-watching. I’ll try and blog from Boston (in between raucous Red Sox celebrations, that is!).
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Off to Boston
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