Thursday, October 09, 2008

Debate Polling II, Plus a Peek Into my Obsessions

Maggie says:
Well it happened again: Obama scored significantly higher in national polls about his debate performance than we scored him. The CNN and CBS instant polling Tuesday night showed him "winning" the debate 54-30 and 39-27, respectively. Now additional polls confirm that first finding. According to the USA Today/Gallup poll, Obama won 56-23. Rasmussen has the Obama debate win at 45-28.

I'm pretty sure most of us thought the second debate was a draw at best, and that Obama did better the first time around. What gives? Are we really this cynical/hard to please/fearful/worried?

In other polling news... polling isn't something I spend much time writing about here, but rest assured, it's a fairly constant topic of conversation at my homestead. We can tell you the latest national polls, swing state polls, surges, strategies, etc., pretty much whenever you need them. So writing about them feels redundant, even though it isn't for the blog. But I admit to being fairly obsessed with swing state polling.

At any rate, my favorite go-to poll source is Real Clear Politics, where you can see averages and different polls stacked together for a variety of races. Get a load of this poll talk from Politico:

Four large states John McCain once seemed well-positioned to win — Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida — have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states — a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events — he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.

Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states — Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada — not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.
Hold on, we need to see that again:
Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states.
I'm not a gambler (unlike others), but I gotta say... those are some pretty tough odds.